Albums of 2010 & 2011: Final top 3000 predictions

[Harold]

I’ve decided to revisit and expand on my previously posted speculations as to which, and how many, albums from 2010 and 2011 will end up on the all-time top 3000 in the next site update. As you may or may not recall, my remarkably unscientific “system” consists simply of adding up the following figures for each album:

*Number of points accumulated in the EOY spreadsheet
*Metascore from Metacritic
*All Music Guide rating

I revised the EOY points by going ahead on my own and deleting (for both years) those sources that Henrik declared ineligible a while back on the EOY songs list thread (Henrik, I can email you those revised EOYs if you want); I also added (arbitrarily, because there’s really nothing about this exercise that isn’t arbitrary) 25 points for those 2010 albums that were included in the new edition of 1001 ALBUMS YOU MUST HEAR BEFORE YOU DIE, and 50 points for the two 2010-2011 releases included in the new Rolling Stone top 500 list.

I ended up with a list of 84 albums that I’m predicting will make the top 3000 – 37 from 2010 and 47 from 2011. As has been noted previously, 2011’s albums spread the wealth around a bit more in terms of acclaim, but for 2010 there was far more consensus about what the year’s very best albums were. In other words, although there are fewer 2010 albums overall here, there are more that will end up in the upper regions of the list.

Here’s the list, broken down by year and by where I think they’ll place:

***2010***

TOP 100:
Arcade Fire – The Suburbs

The #1 album for the two-year period by an absurdly high margin, even without the boost it would have gotten had it made the Rolling Stone list. I can’t see it not debuting within the top 100.

101-200:
Kanye West – My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy

Only #4 on the revised EOY spreadsheet, largely because many of the U.K. lists were made too early to include it; aided greatly by making both the RS list and 1001 ALBUMS.

201-500:
The National – High Violet
Beach House – Teen Dream
Janelle Monae – The ArchAndroid
Deerhunter – Halcyon Digest
LCD Soundsystem – This is Happening

All except the last are in 1001 ALBUMS, and Monae and Deerhunter would just miss the top 500 without it.

501-1000:
Caribou – Swim
Big Boi – Sir Lucious Left Foot: The Son of Chico Dusty
Ariel Pink’s Haunted Graffiti – Before Today
The Black Keys – Brothers
Joanna Newsom – Have One on Me
Flying Lotus – Cosmogramma
Vampire Weekend – Contra
Sufjan Stevens – The Age of Adz

The Black Keys are in 1001 ALBUMS, but don’t need the extra points to be here.

1001-2000:
Sleigh Bells – Treats
Four Tet – There is Love in You
Robyn – Body Talk
Gorillaz – Plastic Beach
These New Puritans – Hidden
Foals – Total Life Forever
John Grant – Queen of Denmark
Yeasayer – Odd Blood
Gil Scott-Heron – I’m New Here
Grinderman – Grinderman 2
Best Coast – Crazy for You

Grant is in the book, and definitely wouldn’t be in the top 2000 without the extra points.

2001-3000:
MGMT – Congratulations
Swans – My Father Will Guide Me Up a Rope to the Sky
Titus Andronicus – The Monitor
Gonjasufi – A Sufi & a Killer
Pantha du Prince – Black Noise
Warpaint – The Fool
Twin Shadow – Forget
Neil Young – Le Noise
Erykah Badu – New Amerykah, Pt. 2: Return of the Ankh
Crystal Castles – Crystal Castles [II]
The Roots – How I Got Over

***2011***

101-200:
PJ Harvey – Let England Shake

#1 for the year by an enormous margin. The three albums I’m predicting for the top 200 all accumulated over 400 points.

201-500:
Bon Iver – Bon Iver
James Blake – James Blake

501-1000:
Fleet Foxes – Helplessness Blues
Tom Waits – Bad as Me
Destroyer – Kaputt
The Weeknd – House of Balloons
tUnE-yArDs – w h o k i l l
St. Vincent – Strange Mercy
M83 – Hurry Up, We’re Dreaming

1001-2000:
Girls – Father, Son, Holy Ghost
Kurt Vile – Smoke Ring for My Halo
Radiohead – The King of Limbs
Wilco – The Whole Love
Metronomy – The English Riviera
The Horrors – Skying
Shabazz Palaces – Black Up
Fucked Up – David Comes to Life
Wild Beasts – Smother
The Beach Boys – SMiLE/The SMiLE Sessions
Lykke Li – Wounded Rhymes
Nicolas Jaar – Space is Only Noise
Adele – 21
Jay-Z & Kanye West – Watch the Throne
Drake – Take Care
Tim Hecker – Ravedeath, 1972
Real Estate – Days
Oneohtrix Point Never – Replica
Yuck – Yuck
EMA – Past Life Martyred Saints
Gang Gang Dance – Eye Contact
The Antlers – Burst Apart
Gillian Welch – The Harrow and the Harvest
Mastodon – The Hunter
The Black Keys – El Camino
Feist – Metals
SBTRKT – SBTRKT

SMiLE, which made the Rolling Stone list, is obviously the wild card here. Henrik, this is a good time for an eligibility ruling. The fact that I’ve included it here makes my opinion obvious, but I can see the argument from the other side. It’s up to you.

2001-3000:
Frank Ocean – Nostalgia, Ultra
The War on Drugs – Slave Ambient
Kate Bush – 50 Words for Snow
Anna Calvi – Anna Calvi
The Walkmen – Lisbon
Wild Flag – Wild Flag
John Maus – We Must Become the Pitiless Censors of Ourselves
Foo Fighters – Wasting Light
Beirut – The Rip Tide
The Decemberists – The King is Dead

[Kingoftonga]

Interesting stuff. It makes me a little queasy to think of The Suburbs leaping above so many bona fide classics. But thousands of critics can't be wrong, right?

If Neil Young's Le Noise makes it in, then he'll have entries in six different decades that are at least bubbling under. Is there any other artist who could possibly boast this? Dylan was the only one that came to my mind, but he's lacking a firm entry from the 2010s.

[Jirin]

I think I generally agree with your predictions, although I don't remember Caribou - Swim being that big with the critics.

@KingofTonga

Tom Waits is only one behind. In the 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s he has at least one album in the top 1500, and Bad As Me will make five.

Also the Rolling Stones managed one bubbling under in the 90s and 00s.

[irreduciblekoan]

Thanks for all that work/speculation, Harold! Fantastic post.

Random question, but would Watch The Throne be under Kanye West and Jay-Z (in other words, on the pages of both of them), or under a separate artist entry for The Throne? It would make a difference because that would be one more album to improve Kanye's artist ranking if it was put under his name, and I'm sure he will already move up a lot because of 2010.

[Harold]

Thanks for all that work/speculation, Harold! Fantastic post.

Random question, but would Watch The Throne be under Kanye West and Jay-Z (in other words, on the pages of both of them), or under a separate artist entry for The Throne? It would make a difference because that would be one more album to improve Kanye's artist ranking if it was put under his name, and I'm sure he will already move up a lot because of 2010.

Thanks!

I'm 99.99% certain that WTT would be classified under the two artists - the album's credited to them as individuals (equally on the physical CD, with West listed first on one side of the package and Hova first on the other), not to "The Throne." Yes, this album and its songs combined with MBDTF will indeed give Mr. West a tremendous boost on the artist list.

[irreduciblekoan]

Ah, ok. I wasn't sure how the packaging attributed the artists. That explains it then.

[Barry]

I'm definitely missing something here, but are mixtapes actually eligible for AM (speaking of "Nostalgia Ultra" and "House Of Balloons" of course)?

[Henrik]

I'm definitely missing something here, but are mixtapes actually eligible for AM (speaking of "Nostalgia Ultra" and "House Of Balloons" of course)?

Mixtapes are OK, as long as the material is new.