Ukraine Invasion

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Ukraine Invasion

Post by Live in Phoenix »

This has what I've been paying attention to for the last few days at the expense of most anything else (including this site). I thought Russia would tear through Ukraine like a knife through hot butter, but it hasn't happened, and now the rest of the world is either not supporting Putin's move, or piling on against Russia. Putin's gone from using a century-old invasion playbook to being reduced further to North Korea-like madman scare tactics. I'm not sure who this will end badly for, but it's not necessarily Ukraine.
Last edited by Live in Phoenix on Sat Mar 12, 2022 7:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukraine invasion

Post by Holden »

It is definitely going better for Ukraine than I think anyone anticipated. Which I say great! I hope things do end well for them and poorly for president Putin. Invasions in the 21st century are ridiculous (and I’m certainly not absolving any other interventionist nations, specifically those with a poor track record in the Middle East) and I hope the Russian government is punished for this attack.
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Re: Ukraine invasion

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Putin going harder after Ukraine. If he keeps at it, and he keeps throwing stuff at the wall, presumably something will stick, but at best the result would be a Pyrrhic victory, now that America and Europe are basically trying to ruin Russia. Putin isn't new on the scene, so it's surprising that he's played this so badly.
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Re: Ukraine invasion

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Assassination plot against Zelensky foiled and unit sent to kill him ‘destroyed,’ Ukraine says
Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said during a broadcast marathon airing on Ukrainian TV channels that officials were recently tipped off that a unit of Kadyrovites, elite Chechen special forces, was on its way to kill Zelensky. After Ukrainian officials were informed by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), the Chechen special forces were killed Saturday on the outskirts of Kyiv, Danilov said.

“We are well aware of the special operation that was to take place directly by the Kadyrovites to eliminate our president. And I can say that we have received information from the FSB, who today do not want to take part in this bloody war,” Danilov said. “And thanks to this, the Kadyrov elite group was destroyed, which came here to eliminate our president.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... pt-foiled/

So not only were there forces sent to flat-out assassinate the Ukraine president, but some Russian officials decided to sabotage the operation.
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Re: Ukraine invasion

Post by Moonbeam »

It's been hard to peel my eyes away from this. I hope all of our forum members in Europe are able to stay safe.
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Re: Ukraine invasion

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It's all happening just a few hundred kms away from my country, it's an uneasy feeling for everyone around me. The tears of all the women and children coming in, leaving fathers/brothers/husbands behind to fight and not knowing if they'll see them again, will be hard to shake. They're being helped the best we can, either by authorities or just normal people. It's this spontaneous kindness and fraternity the one that gives me hope that reason and humanity will prevail and bored men in suits holding too much power won't turn this planet and everything living to dust.
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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A maternity and children's hospital in the southern city of Mariupol, Ukraine, has been reportedly bombed. Russia is now practically severed from America and much of Europe.
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

Post by whuntva »

Whatever happens, Putin is in a lose-lose situation.

If he annexes Ukraine, he will have to deal with infighting and backlash from the West. The Ukrainians will not go down quietly. If he does not, Ukraine joins the EU and NATO, bringing Western influence to Russia's doorstep. Exactly the move he was trying to avoid. This whole exercise was just a display in futility for Putin's administration.
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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7 weeks into the war that was supposed to finish up in February.
Washington Post

Nine ways Russia botched its invasion of Ukraine

By Liz Sly
Today at 2:51 p.m. EDT

Road service workers clear debris around a burned Russian armored vehicle on a road west of Kyiv on April 7, 2022. (Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images)

The ineptitude displayed by the Russian military in its initial attempt to overrun Ukraine has astounded military professionals. The world’s second-most-powerful army has bungled almost every move since the first hours of the invasion. Now, seven weeks into a war that Russia as well as the West had expected would last only days, the Ukrainians have the momentum. They have forced the Russians to make a humiliating retreat from the north of the country and stalled or reversed Russian advances on most other fronts.

As Russia refocuses its energies on capturing Ukraine’s eastern region, the crucial question will be whether its military can redress the mistakes of the early assault. Here are nine of the most important mistakes identified by military experts.

1
Misjudging the Ukrainians

The biggest mistake of all was to underestimate both the will and the capacity of the Ukrainians to resist. Russia had planned for a swift and easy victory, expecting its troops to be greeted as liberators. Instead, the Ukrainians fought back ferociously, aided by weaponry from the West.

And it wasn’t just the army that fought back. Ordinary civilians also seized the initiative to thwart Russian advances, such as those in the farming town of Voznesensk who picked up hunting rifles and hurled bricks to help halt Russian soldiers along the southern coast.

Many of the setbacks Russia encountered sprung from this initial miscalculation — but not all.

2
Not preparing their troops

Testimonies of captured Russian soldiers suggest many troops had not been told they would be invading Ukraine. Some said they were told they were participating in a military exercise, others that they were being sent just to the eastern Donbas region. That meant they were psychologically unprepared to be shot at and blown up, as happened almost instantly, which took an immediate toll on troops’ morale, noted Jack Watling of the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

The enormity of the casualties Russia subsequently suffered has only exacerbated the low morale, he said. NATO put the number of Russian dead at 15,000 over two weeks ago, more than in the Soviet Union’s decade-long war in Afghanistan. Ukrainian officials say they have collected 7,000 Russian corpses from the battlefield, though Russia maintains it has lost only 1,351 soldiers.

3
Invading without enough supplies — or the right supplies

Russian units seemed wholly unprepared for the conditions and circumstances they encountered. Units expecting to roll unopposed into Kyiv and other cities brought just two weeks of supplies, and those quickly ran out. Videos quickly emerged showing Russian soldiers stranded on roadsides next to their vehicles because they had no fuel and hungry soldiers looting stores and stealing chickens.

Surprisingly, those troops also lacked some of the key tools of modern warfare, such as night-vision equipment, said John Spencer, who chairs the Urban Warfare Studies program at the Madison Policy Forum. Ukrainians have such equipment and were able to control the night, launching attacks and ambushes under cover of darkness against an enemy unable to see them.

Russia might not even have enough regular weapons to equip all the forces it is sending into battle. Some newly drafted soldiers on the eastern front have been issued rifles first developed in the 19th century and out of production for decades, according to witnesses quoted in a Reuters report.

4
Not recognizing their poor logistics

Military experts describe a massive logistical failure: When troops ran out of food and other supplies after the initial plan went wrong, their superiors had no plans for resupply. Tanks stalled, and the poorly maintained trucks that were then sent lost tires or broke down, contributing to the infamous 40-mile convoy-turned-traffic jam.

“Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics” is an oft-repeated cliche in military circles — and one that the Russians appear not to have heeded. The myriad elements behind the logistics failure are laid out in this detailed account by Washington Post reporters Bonnie Berkowitz and Artur Galocha.

As they invaded Ukraine, Russian troops entered the country from the north, east and south. They moved quickly toward Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson.

Two weeks later, the quick operation Russia had expected was stalled. Its troops had been unable to enter into Kyiv or Kharkiv, and advances on the eastern front were very slow.

One month into the war, Russian troops had gained little ground beyond some areas in northeast Ukraine. Critically, they had failed to take Kyiv.

After Russia announced it would focus its forces on eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, the retreat of troops from other parts of the country revealed the horrors inflicted there.

5
Failing to take out Ukraine’s air defenses

Military experts had expected a Russian bombing campaign to take out Ukrainian air-defense systems, bases and planes before troops would be sent across the border. Instead, the troops surged in without air support.

Perhaps this also can be explained by commanders’ initial miscalculation that they would encounter little resistance. But it confounds military observers that the Ukrainian air force is still flying, seven weeks on.

6
Attacking on too many fronts

The largest force assembled in Europe since World War II proved too small to fight — let alone hold — the vast arc of territory that Russia attempted to seize. The initial invasion was launched on four fronts: the north toward Kyiv; the northeast toward Kharkiv; the east; and the south from the annexed peninsula of Crimea.

Once the first push ran into resistance, the troops found themselves strung out along the country’s borders, stretching already inadequate supply lines. According to the “force ratio” rule used by military tacticians, an invading force needs 20 soldiers for every 1,000 of a country’s population. For a country the size of Ukraine, that calculation means 880,000 troops, as Michael Clarke, a visiting professor in the war studies department at King’s College London, told the Times of London. The United States invaded Iraq with a force ratio of 7, going up against a far less capable army than that of Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine with a force ratio of 4.

7
Using unsecured communications

Astonishingly, the Russians embarked on a major war using cellphones and old-fashioned radios to communicate. The Ukrainians were able to intercept messages regarding Russian movements on the battlefield and lie in wait for them with ambushes. At least some of the seven generals killed on the battlefield died because the Ukrainians intercepted messages about their locations, according to a Western official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive subjects.

So accessible are Russian military communications that amateur radio enthusiasts have been listening in and streaming them.

8
Proceeding without clear lines of command

Russia’s highly centralized military does not empower troops on the ground to make decisions or issue orders, experts say. Troops that quickly ran into difficulty were unable to shift gears to adjust to their new circumstances because they had to await orders from superiors in Moscow (over unsecured lines, as just noted).

Unlike U.S. and other Western militaries, the Russian military does not have noncommissioned officers. Troops are left floundering when their original orders don’t pan out, retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, a former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, told CNN.

9
Failing to have a Plan B

The Russians clearly weren’t prepared for a scenario in which they encountered resistance. When they did, they had apparently made no backup plan. Instead, troops pressed ahead as originally ordered, driving into ambushes and steadily getting killed by the Ukrainians. Armored convoys were dispatched without infantry support, making them easy targets for Ukrainians armed with portable antitank weapons such as the U.S.-supplied Javelins.

Overall, the entire plan was poorly conceived from the outset, from the size of the force to its preparedness and its ability to adapt to changing circumstances, military experts say. “The incompetence in planning command, control & communication (C3) is staggering,” Hertling said in a tweet.

War in Ukraine: What you need to know
The latest: At least 50 people were killed and 98 injured Friday at the Kramatorsk train station in eastern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian officials, in what they said was a Russian missile attack while evacuees were waiting to escape an expected Russian onslaught in the region.

The fight: Russian forces continue to mount sporadic attacks on civilian targets in a number of Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian prosecutors have been taking detailed testimony from victims to investigate Russian war crimes.

The weapons: Ukraine is making use of weapons such as Javelin antitank missiles and Switchblade “kamikaze” drones, provided by the United States and other allies. Russia has used an array of weapons against Ukraine, some of which have drawn the attention and concern of analysts.

In Russia: Putin has locked down the flow of information within Russia, where the war isn’t even being called a war. The last independent newsletter in Russia suspended its operations.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... -invasion/
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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Ukraine claims missile strikes on Russia’s ‘fuck yourself’ warship
The Moskva is the same ship a Ukrainian soldier memorably told to “go fuck yourself” during its attack on Snake Island at the beginning of the Russian invasion.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politi ... rself/amp/

Called "the biggest wartime loss of a naval ship in 40 years" by CNN. Russia denies that it's Ukraine's doing, for what it's worth (which isn't much).
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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Putin recently compared his military conflict with Peter the Great's empire. ("He was returning and reinforcing, that is what he was doing. Clearly, it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well.") So, expect this to wrap up around the time Putin dies or Russia bleeds out, whenever that is.


Restoration of empire is the endgame for Russia's Vladimir Putin
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/10/europe/r ... index.html
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

Post by Honorio »

I want to keep AM forum as a place in which we allow free speech. But such a blatant Russian propaganda is a whole other thing. I want to know what the forum thinks on the subject? Should we ban WayneCha44?
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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it's just a new account ...
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

Post by nquoid »

I think if it was just the opinions themselves then it'd get a pass, but several of those sources are blatant misinformation, and not just about Ukraine/Russia. Jimmy Dore is well documented to be spreading Covid vaccine misinformation.
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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Honorio wrote: Sun Jun 19, 2022 8:45 am I want to keep AM forum as a place in which we allow free speech. But such a blatant Russian propaganda is a whole other thing. I want to know what the forum thinks on the subject? Should we ban WayneCha44?
If this was a poster with hundreds of posts, all of them acceptable, who just made one post filled with bad Russian propaganda, I'd say no.

But seeing as this is their second post, then I'd say yeah. We shouldn't host Russian propaganda here.
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

Post by Honorio »

OK, three yes are enough for me.
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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Honorio wrote: Sun Jun 19, 2022 7:13 pm OK, three yes are enough for me.
Banned (and post deleted)
hello sir you should ban the other guy posting in critics lists
Last edited by VacantJoy on Wed Jun 22, 2022 6:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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Roxicodone as critic's lists ...HAHAHA
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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Fortunately it looks like I missed something. One of my wife's old co-workers has gone over there. He's been a guest at our house a couple of times. He's a little too old to be directly assigned a combat role, so that's not what he's doing; but trouble might find him anyway, if it can find innocent civilians. I couldn't even say that I'll be seeing him again. So, at the least, I want to be spared some shitty propaganda about how the Ukrainians deserve all of this, or whatever. Thanks Honorio.
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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My occasional update:
The Washington Post

Russia admits retreat from key towns in eastern Ukraine

After a forceful Ukrainian advance, Russia’s Ministry of Defense said it had pulled forces out of Balakliia and Izyum in the Kharkiv region, part of a decision to “regroup” and transfer those forces to Donetsk in the south.

Russia’s defense ministry on Saturday admitted its forces had retreated from key towns in northeastern Ukraine after a stunning advance by Ukrainian troops.

The Defense Ministry said it had pulled forces out of the village of Balakliya and the strategically crucial city of Izyum in the Kharkiv region, after a decision to “regroup” and transfer them to Donetsk in the south.”

“In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakliya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction,” the Russian military statement said.

[Ukrainian forces retake key villages as counteroffensive advances]

Although Russian officials sought to spin the developments — saying “a powerful fire was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile troops and artillery” as they withdrew — it was clear their troops were retreating to avoid being encircled. Ukrainian officials said the Russians had left behind equipment and ammunition.

Earlier, the commander leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said Ukraine had full control of Balakliya and also controlled part of Kupyansk, an important strategic rail hub seen as crucial to Russia’s war effort in the region.
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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Sample headline today, from The Daily Beast:

Russia Implodes after Putin Summons 300,000 to Die for Him
The mass mobilization announcement from “crazy old man” Vladimir Putin is already sending Russia into chaos.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-im ... e?ref=home
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Re: Ukraine Invasion

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How it's going.

Wagner chief vows to topple Russian military leaders
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256

==============================================

Tweet from Alexander S. Vindman:
"I’ve made the drive from Rostov to Moscow at least a dozen times. Voronezh is more than halfway to Moscow. If reports of Wagner fighting in Voronezh are accurate, then they are hours away from Moscow."
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